智能城市的现实与幻象‘五分赛车网站’

By this time next year, we may have become disillusioned with the internet of things. The idea that every object — from toasters to street lights — could be connected to the internet and be communicating with us has been hyped for several years.等到明年这个时候，我们也许就不会对物联网完全破灭。一切物品——从烤面包机到路灯——都可以相连到互联网与我们交流的概念早已抹黑了数年。It reached a peak this month at the International Consumer Electronics Show in Las Vegas, where more than 900 companies exhibited connected products. Samsung, makers of products from fridges to phones, said that within five years all of its appliances would be able to connect to the internet.今年1月在拉斯维加斯举办的国际消费类电子产品展览(CES)上，物联网的概念堪称被图形到淋漓尽致，900多家公司展出了联网产品。

制造商三星(Samsung)回应5年内旗下所有电器都将能联网，其产品涵括了从电冰箱到手机等多种类别。The predictions for the number of objects that will be connected are big — from technology research company Gartner’s forecast of 25bn connected physical objects by 2020 to tech company Cisco’s more bullish 50bn forecast.据预测可联网物品的数量将十分可观，技术研究公司低德纳(Gartner)预测至2020年将有250亿种联网物品，高科技公司思科(Cisco)更为悲观，得出了500亿的预测值。

Cue the ennui. Just as the internet hype of 2000 led to disillusionment, the internet of things will struggle to live up to expectations in the short term.这开始令人实在有点沮丧了。正如2000年对互联网的抹黑造成了破灭，物联网也无以在短期内超过人们的希望。

Companies, certainly, remain unconvinced by the business case. A survey by Gartner of 1,500 chief information officers last August found that only 22 per cent had deployed or were experimenting with the internet of things.当然，企业对物联网的商业应用于前景仍表格猜测。去年8月低德纳对1500名首席信息官展开调查后找到，仅有22%的人回应所在企业早已投身于或正在尝试投身于物联网。The remaining 78 per cent either thought it irrelevant or at the too-early stage.其余78%的人或指出物联网并不最重要，或指出它还正处于过早阶段。

One problem is that the technology is still a little expensive, says Maurizio Pilu, partnerships director at Digital Catapult, a UK government organisation that helps support new projects.Digital Catapult主管合作事宜的毛里齐奥皮卢(Maurizio Pilu)回应，问题之一在于物联网技术还是有点喜。Digital Catapult是一家为新项目获取反对的英国政府机构。The price of a simple wireless sensor will soon be as low as 1, a price point at which this could become a mass-market proposition. But other parts of the kit, including communications and battery modules, might still come in at 20 to 40, which, Mr Pilu says, is too high.一个非常简单的无线传感器的价格有可能迅速就不会降到1英镑左右，在这一价位上该商品有可能转入大众市场。

但还包括通讯和电池模块在内的其余设施产品有可能仍将保持在20英镑至40英镑的价位，皮卢回应这一价格依然过低。“It needs to become closer to 3 to 4, [then] the business case begins to make sense,” he says.他说道：“它的价位要相似3英镑到4英镑，（那时）应用于到商业上才开始具备合理性。”Telecoms networks have to change to meet the requirements of billions of low-power devices that need to connect constantly to the internet to transmit small amounts of data. The cost of sending such data over the network will have to come down.电信网络必需做出转变，以符合数十亿个较低功率设备的市场需求，它们必须持续联网发送到少量数据。

因此在网上发送到这类数据的费用必需降下来。“It is not scalable for a low-cost device to pay several dollars a month just to have connectivity,” says Zach Shelby, director of technical marketing for the internet of things at Arm, the chip designer.芯片设计公司Arm的物联网技术营销总监扎克谢尔比(Zach Shelby)说道：“每月光为了让一个低成本设备联网就要缴纳好几美元，这是无法推展的。

”Security will need to be improved to ensure that internet-connected objects cannot be hacked and hijacked. Physical attacks over the internet are happening. At the end of last year the German federal office of information security revealed thatmachinery at a German steelworks was severely damaged when hackers gained access to control systems via the internet.电信网络还必须提升安全性，保证联网设备无法被黑客攻击和挟持。现在早已再次发生了通过互联网发动物理攻击的事件。去年年底德国联邦信息安全办公室透漏，黑客通过网络转入德国一家钢厂的控制系统，使该厂机器遭严重破坏。When everything from traffic lights and cars to home heating systems are linked online, the potential for harmful hacks increases further. However, the simple, low-power devices used for the internet of things might not be able to handle heavy encryption, or may not be patched and updated if a security flaw is discovered.等到从交通指示灯、汽车到家庭供暖系统的一切都相连网际网路，遭破坏性反击的可能性将更进一步减少。

然而，用作物联网的非常简单、较低功率设备也许无法处置高度加密，或当找到安全漏洞时，有可能无法打补丁或改版。“There are big security holes and quite a lot of work needs to be done to fix them,” says Jim Tully, analyst at Gartner.低德纳的分析师吉姆塔利(Jim Tully)说道：“电信网络不存在相当大安全漏洞，还必须做到大量工作来解决问题这些问题。”Interconnectivity of devices is an issue that needs resolving. If your toaster cannot talk to your TV, or if the street lights are not on the same system as the rubbish bins, the networks will be less useful. Persuading all manufacturers to agree looks tricky, as a number of competing industry groups are each pushing their own standard.还有一个要解决问题的问题是设备之间的网络。

如果烤面包机无法跟电视交流，或者路灯跟垃圾箱不出同一个系统里，物联网的用处就没有那么大了。劝说所有制造商都表示同意网络或许是个棘手难题，因为许多相互竞争的行业团体都在各自直言自己的标准。

“Everyone says ‘yes, lets ensure interoperability — as long as it is my version of interoperability’,” says Mr Pilu.皮卢说道：“人人都说道‘好啊，让我们保证产品可以协同工作——只要按我的互操作标准来。’”The internet of things will raise privacy concerns, as it makes a fresh level of tracking and data collection possible. In the same way that companies and governments can follow what people do online — the websites they visit, what links they click — it will become possible to track almost everything an individual does in the physical world.物联网将引起隐私问题，因为它有可能将追踪和数据搜集推向新的高度。某种程度地，企业和政府可以密切注意人们在网上做到什么，比如他们网页的网站，他们页面的链接，预计人们在现实世界中的所有下落完全都可以被掌控。

Companies are interested in the marketing possibilities this presents. Yet public opinion will have to decide whether there should be limits on what can be monitored.企业对物联网呈现出的营销前景很有兴趣。然而公众舆论将要求否该对可监控对象设限。While these issues are being resolved, large-scale internet of things projects are rolling out slowly. The projects with the clearest business case have to do with saving money on municipal street lighting and bin collection. General Electric says San Diego will save $254,000 a year by replacing some 3,000 street lamps with an intelligent lighting grid where each individual lamp can be remotely monitored and adjusted. The system makes it easy to pinpoint lamps that need changing and switch off those not in use.随着这些问题一步一步获得解决问题，大规模物联网项目也在渐渐发售。

具备明晰商业意义的项目牵涉到城市街道灯光和垃圾搜集的成本节约。通用电气(General Electric)回应圣迭戈通过将约3000盏路灯替换成智能灯光网，每年将节省25.4万美元。

智能灯光网里的每盏路灯可以远程监控和调节。该系统便利精确找到必须换灯泡的路灯，以及重开不用于的路灯。

Philadelphia, meanwhile, was able to reduce its rubbish collection costs from $2.3m to $720,000 in part by fitting rubbish bins with sensors that were triggered when the container was full, eliminating unnecessary collection trips to half-empty bins.费城则可以将搜集垃圾的成本从230万美元增加到72万美元，方案之一是给垃圾桶加装传感器，垃圾箱装进时即启动时传感器，这样可以不必在垃圾箱半剩时去缴垃圾，增加不必要的来往。More complex projects are still in a development phase. Milton Keynes in the UK will this year fit parking spots with sensors that tell drivers when the space is free. Mr Pilu, who is helping to launch the project, admits that it will be difficult to measure the return on an investment like this.更加简单的项目仍正处于开发阶段。

英国的米尔顿凯恩斯(Milton Keynes)今年将在停车场加装传感器，当停车场有空位时传感器不会通报驾驶员。皮卢正在帮助积极开展这项计划，他否认像这样的投资很难取决于报酬。

Medical and research uses are being explored. Research from ATT, the US telecoms multinational, for example, has partnered with 24eight, which makes pressure sensors that can be embedded into shoe inner soles. They have distributed slippers with an internet-connected chip to elderly people at a care centre in Texas, and are using the foot movement data they receive to diagnose health problems, such as the initial stages of Alzheimer’s disease.物联网的医疗和科研用途正在探寻中。比如美国跨国电信公司ATT的研发部门与压力传感器（可映射鞋内底）制造商24eight达成协议合作。他们将内置联网芯片的拖鞋派发给德克萨斯州一家护理中心的老年人，利用所接到的足部运动数据临床身体健康问题，比如阿尔茨海默氏病的初期阶段。

“In the early stages of Alzheimer’s you might get up to make a cup of tea but for a moment forget where you were going. That small wandering pattern, which others might not initially notice, could be an early warning sign,” says Mr Tully.塔利说道：“在阿尔茨海默氏症早期阶段，你有可能抱住冷水了杯茶，但过一会儿就忘了自己要干什么。这种严重的精神恍惚状态有可能是早期预警信号，但其他人有可能一开始留意将近。”He believes some of the “wacky” personal items on display at CES may evolve into industrial-scale applications. Vessyl, a cup that identifies any liquid poured into it, might sound like a toy for those wanting to keep tabs on their drinks intake. But what about applying the concept to a car and monitoring that the right fuel is in the tank?他指出CES展上一些“稀奇古怪”的个人物品有可能发展成工业级的应用于。Vessyl是一款能辨识出有放入液体的杯子，听得一起看起来合适那些想要监督自己饮料摄取情况的人用于的玩意儿。

但假设将这一概念应用于到汽车上，检测油箱里的汽油索尔对不该呢？“We will see hundreds of little applications that will be eventually woven together to make a smart city,” says Mr Pilu. “I believe this will develop in an evolutionary way.”皮卢说道：“我们将看见成百上千个小应用于，它们最后将交织在一起，编织出有一座智能城市。我坚信这将以循序渐进的方式发展。

”But do not expect the internet of things to do spectacular things just yet. For the time being, expect more internet-connected bins and street lighting, while businesses work out just what else these ecosystems can do.但是不要确信物联网立刻就大放异彩。目前不能期望更加多联网垃圾箱和路灯，然后等着企业想要出有这些生态系统还能做什么。

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